Wednesday, July 6, 2011

What if, when, oil goes over $220/barrel?

"Our friend Byron King from Agora Financial thinks there is a good chance the price of oil could rise above $220.

"No matter how much oil Obama releases from the strategic reserve it won't outlast the regional conflict that's been simmering for years that could boil over at any moment.

"A conflict so lethal it could rocket oil past $220.

"But make no mistake - this shocking war is eight times bigger than the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan. It's also lethal enough to at least DOUBLE the price of gas and oil in 2011...."

This is from Michael Ward of Money Morning, a right wing financial guru.


What then?

Following the usual formula of "passing on to the consumer", gas prices at the pump will more than double. In Canada, to more than $11/gal. In Europe, over $20/gal.

In the U.S., the government, still under the control of Big Oil, will try to keep it as low as possible, by increasing its already far-excessive oil subsidies, and this is in spite of the fact that Exxon is already topping the Fortune 500. This in turn encourages public investment in oil, thus boosting the already colossal power of oil. This may keep the pump price of gas below $7/gal, but it is unsustainable without raise taxes to fund the oil-subsidy. One way of another, Americans cannot exempt themselves, at least not for long.


So, what in day-to-day terms will happen when oil prices more than double? Either we pay double for any goods requiring long distance transportation, or, if we can't afford to pay, the transportation system would grind down if not to a halt, and society will fragment.

Suggesting that high tech will save us from economic collapse is a pipe dream, since high tech will be the first to fall in an unprecedented global economic collapse caused by unprecedented oil price rises.

Try this for a close-to-home feel. Go for a walk-through in Safeway, and note how many items are from far away places. These will double in prices, or be no longer available. Empty shelves in Safeway can and most likely will happen, probably as early as some time within the next decade.

In previous food shortages, America could use her economical prowess for buying food from around the world to feed herself. This time, there may not be any country that will export any food. China, for example, has been a long-standing supplier of rice to some SE Asian countries, e.g. Malaysia and the Philippines, but has stopped doing so in recent years, having suffered repeated droughts in both northern and southern China. So this time around, if/when America falls short of food, the Americans would just have to do without.

Worst of all, African and Mid-Eastern countries have the highest reproductive rates in the world. Africa will inevitably suffer unprecedented famines, with all wildlife eaten out. The Middle East will need food importation more than ever before, but in a world without a seller, the Muslim nations will enter a state of societal malnutrition, and get into a mood of unprecedented desperation.

Recall that the current wave of political unrest in the Middle East started in Egypt over "rising food prices". Imagine the explosion that will result from "food shortage", much less "food outage".


Anthony Marr, Founder and President
Heal Our Planet Earth (HOPE)
Global Anti-Hunting Coalition (GAHC) (AM's 3rd-book-in-the-making)

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